Hindsight Bias

Hindsight bias is the opposite of overconfidence bias, as it occurs when looking backward in time

and mistakes seem obvious after they have already occurred. In other words, after a surprising event

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occurred, many individuals are likely to think that they already knew the event was going to happen.

This bias may occur because they are selectively reconstructing the events. Hindsight bias tends to

become a problem when judging someone else’s decisions. For example, let’s say a company driver

hears the engine making unusual sounds before starting the morning routine. Being familiar with

this car in particular, the driver may conclude that the probability of a serious problem is small and

continues to drive the car. During the day, the car malfunctions and stops miles away from the office.

It would be easy to criticize the decision to continue to drive the car because in hindsight, the noises

heard in the morning would make us believe that the driver should have known something was

wrong and taken the car in for service. However, the driver in question may have heard similar

sounds before with no consequences, so based on the information available at the time, continuing

with the regular routine may have been a reasonable choice. Therefore, it is important for decision

makers to remember this bias before passing judgments on other people’s actions.



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