Hindsight bias is the opposite of overconfidence bias, as it occurs when looking backward in time
and mistakes seem obvious after they have already occurred. In other words, after a surprising event
occurred, many individuals are likely to think that they already knew the event was going to happen.
This bias may occur because they are selectively reconstructing the events. Hindsight bias tends to
become a problem when judging someone else’s decisions. For example, let’s say a company driver
hears the engine making unusual sounds before starting the morning routine. Being familiar with
this car in particular, the driver may conclude that the probability of a serious problem is small and
continues to drive the car. During the day, the car malfunctions and stops miles away from the office.
It would be easy to criticize the decision to continue to drive the car because in hindsight, the noises
heard in the morning would make us believe that the driver should have known something was
wrong and taken the car in for service. However, the driver in question may have heard similar
sounds before with no consequences, so based on the information available at the time, continuing
with the regular routine may have been a reasonable choice. Therefore, it is important for decision
makers to remember this bias before passing judgments on other people’s actions.
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