In daily life, we often have to make decisions quickly without full informa- tion. To deal with this overload of decisions, we commonly employ what cognitive psychologists call heuristics. Technically, a heuristic is a general strategy for solving a problem or coming to a decision. For example, a good heuristic for solving geometry problems is to start with the conclusion you are trying to reach and then work backward.
Recent research in cognitive psychology has shown, first, that human be- ings rely very heavily on heuristics and, second, that we often have too much confidence in them. The result is that our probability judgments often go very wrong, and sometimes our thinking gets utterly mixed up. In this regard, two heuristics are particularly instructive: the representativeness heuristic and the availability heuristic.
THE REPRESENTATIVENESS HEURISTIC. A simple example illustrates how errors can arise from the representativeness heuristic. Imagine that you are randomly dealt five-card hands from a standard deck. Which of the follow- ing two hands is more likely to come up?
HAND #1 HAND #2
Three of clubs Ace of spades
Seven of diamonds Ace of hearts
Nine of diamonds Ace of clubs
Queen of hearts Ace of diamonds
King of spades King of spades
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