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# SOME RULES OF PROBABILITY

Suppose you have determined the probability that certain simple events will occur; how do you go about applying this information to combinations of events? This is a complex question and one that can be touched on only lightly in this text. There are, however, some simple rules of probability that are worth knowing because they can guide us in making choices when out- comes are uncertain.

By convention, events are assigned probabilities between 0 and 1 (inclusive). An event is going to either occur or not occur; that, at least, is certain (that is, it has a probability of 1). From this it is easy to see how to calculate the probabil- ity that the event will not occur given the probability that it will occur: We sim- ply subtract the probability that it will occur from 1. This is our first rule:

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RULE 1: NEGATION. The probability that an event will not occur is 1 minus the probability that it will occur. Symbolically:

Pr(not h) = 1 Pr(h)

For example, the probability of drawing an ace from a standard deck is one in thirteen, so the probability of not drawing an ace is twelve in thirteen. This makes sense because there are forty-eight out of fifty-two ways of not drawing an ace, and this reduces to twelve chances in thirteen.

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