I must warn the reader that this figure isn’t intended to be in any way an accurate estimate of the likelihood that Sally Clark is innocent. It is only meant to show that, with some reasonable estimates of the likelihoods of relevant events, the scales come down on the side of her innocence rather than her guilt. The only way to disagree with this analysis is to assume that literally hundreds, or thousands, of mothers murder their children undetected every year. The Campaign to Free Sally Clark say that nearly fifty families have con- tacted them to say that they have suffered double cot deaths. Are we to believe that the majority of these couples are murderers, confident or mad enough to draw attention to themselves in this way? . . .
Plus readers may be interested to know that Sally Clark’s case has been referred to the Appeal Court for a second time. Evidence, not made available to her original de- fence team, has recently come to light that at the time of Harry’s death, he was suffer- ing from a bacterial blood infection known to cause sudden infant death.
NOTES 1 Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunc- tion Fallacy in Probability Judgment.” Psychological Review 90 (1983): 297.
3 Thomas Gilovich, Robert Vallone, and Amos Tversky, “The Hot Hand in Basketball: The Misperception of Random Sequences,” Cognitive Psychology 17 (1985): 295–314. The quotation is from pages 295–6.
4 See Gerd Gigerenzer, Calculated Risk: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You.
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