• False sense of precision and confidence. The heart of risk analysis is the use of empirical data to generate estimates of risk impact, risk probability, and risk exposure. The danger is that these numbers will give us a false sense of precision, thereby giving rise to an undeserved confidence in the numbers. However, in many cases the numbers themselves are much less important than their relative sizes. Whether an expected loss is $100,000 or $150,000 is relatively unimportant. It is much more significant that the expected loss is far above the $10,000 or $20,000 budget allocated for implementing a particular control. Moreover, anytime a risk analysis generates a large potential loss, the system deserves further scrutiny to see if the root cause of the risk can be addressed.
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